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Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Chen, Yue2,4; Liang, Yu2,3,4; Chen, Xianyao1,2,3,4; Bi, Haibo5,6
刊名NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
出版日期2025-12-26
卷号9期号:1页码:11
ISSN号2397-3722
DOI10.1038/s41612-025-01296-2
通讯作者Chen, Xianyao(chenxy@ouc.edu.cn)
英文摘要Arctic cyclones play a crucial role in regional climate and have important linkages to mid-latitude processes. However, their future changes and driving mechanisms remain uncertain. By applying Lagrangian tracking to CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, this study projects future Arctic cyclone activity changes and quantitatively investigates the relative contributions of local cyclogenesis and externally migrating systems. By the late 21st century, Arctic cyclone activity is projected to decline, with distinct seasonal and regional differences. Winter reductions stem from weakened local cyclogenesis, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic, while increased external migration intensifies cyclone activity in the Bering Sea and northeast Siberia. Summer declines result largely from reduced poleward intrusion of mid-latitude cyclones, particularly along continental margins. Yet increased cyclones around Greenland are driven by enhanced local cyclogenesis. These changes in local cyclogenesis and external migration are closely tied to variations in baroclinic instability and large-scale atmospheric flow patterns, respectively.
WOS关键词ATLANTIC JET-STREAM ; SEA-ICE LOSS ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; STORM TRACK ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; FRONTAL ZONE ; CMIP5
资助项目Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province[ZR2024QD149] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42406246] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2024T170862] ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF[GZC20232493]
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001672134600001
出版者NATURE PORTFOLIO
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/204619]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者Chen, Xianyao
作者单位1.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
2.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.Ocean Univ China, Key Lab Transparent Arctic, Qingdao, Peoples R China
4.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Chen, Yue,Liang, Yu,Chen, Xianyao,et al. Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate[J]. NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE,2025,9(1):11.
APA Chen, Yue,Liang, Yu,Chen, Xianyao,&Bi, Haibo.(2025).Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate.NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE,9(1),11.
MLA Chen, Yue,et al."Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate".NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE 9.1(2025):11.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：海洋研究所

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