Impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on the forecast of marine heatwaves in the southeastern tropical Indian ocean
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Cui, Zhanxian3,4,5; Li, Yuanlong3,4,6; Liu, Yangke1; Bao, Qing1; Zhang, Lei2; Ge, Kai3,4; Wang, Fan3,4,6 |
| 刊名 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-02-05 |
| 卷号 | 64期号:3页码:20 |
| 关键词 | Southeastern tropical Indian ocean Marine heatwaves FGOALS-f2 Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast Madden-Julian oscillation |
| ISSN号 | 0930-7575 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-026-08068-5 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Yuanlong(liyuanlong@qdio.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Large-scale marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been increasingly observed in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) with adverse impacts on local marine ecosystems. Existing studies indicated that the eastward-propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) critically modulates the occurrence and evolution of MHWs in austral summer. Yet, the potential predictability of MHWs provided by this modulation effect has not been evaluated in coupled forecast systems. This issue is addressed here using the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal forecast of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, finite-volume version-2 (FGOALS-f2). The FGOALS-f2 shows useful forecast skills (anomaly correlation coefficient > 0.5) of similar to 15 and similar to 20 days for atmospheric convection and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the MJO. For all summertime MHWs of 2000-2018, 61%, 56%, 44%, and 22% can be correctly forecasted at leads of 10, 15, 20, and 30 days, respectively. Initialized from the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) phase 1, the forecasted occurrence probability of MHW reaches 25% after 10-15 days, evidently higher than those initiated from other phases (e.g., 8% from Phase 5), which is consistent in observation-based statistics. Notably, forecasts initialized from RMM phase 7 achieve an average MHW probability of 13% after 20-25 days, also higher than those from others (e.g., 6% for Phase 3). The forecast error in SST and MHWs tends to increase with the lead time. The error primarily arises from weaker variability of atmospheric convection, leading to slower change and delayed phase transition of SST. This work highlights the essential role of intraseasonal variability in the forecast of MHWs in the SETIO. |
| WOS关键词 | AIR-SEA INTERACTION ; MJO ; SUMMER ; PREDICTABILITY ; SYSTEM ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; AUSTRALIA ; MODEL ; NINO |
| 资助项目 | Natural Science Foundation of China[42476025] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[42090044] ; Laoshan Laboratory[LSKJ202202601] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001682457400004 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/204718]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Yuanlong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Qingdao, Peoples R China 5.Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China 6.Qingdao Marine Sci & Technol Ctr, Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cui, Zhanxian,Li, Yuanlong,Liu, Yangke,et al. Impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on the forecast of marine heatwaves in the southeastern tropical Indian ocean[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2026,64(3):20. |
| APA | Cui, Zhanxian.,Li, Yuanlong.,Liu, Yangke.,Bao, Qing.,Zhang, Lei.,...&Wang, Fan.(2026).Impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on the forecast of marine heatwaves in the southeastern tropical Indian ocean.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,64(3),20. |
| MLA | Cui, Zhanxian,et al."Impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation on the forecast of marine heatwaves in the southeastern tropical Indian ocean".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 64.3(2026):20. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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