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Upper-ocean stratification changes control ENSO amplitude shift under sustained global warming

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Rong-Hua6; Chen, Maonan2,3,4; Gao, Chuan2,3,4,5; Zhou, Lu6; Zhi, Hai7; Liu, Siying6; Tao, Lingjiang6; Wu, Minmin6; Gao, Jiaxiang1; Wang, Hongna2,3,5
刊名NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
出版日期2026-02-24
卷号17期号:1页码:12
DOI10.1038/s41467-026-69931-x
通讯作者Zhang, Rong-Hua(rzhang@nuist.edu.cn) ; Gao, Chuan(gaochuan@qdio.ac.cn)
英文摘要As projected by climate models in the high emission scenarios, the El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits a non-monotonic amplitude shift. However, its key drivers remain poorly quantified. Here we introduce a framework using an intermediate coupled model (ICM) that coherently represents mean-state oceanic climatologies in the tropical Pacific, derived from eight selected climate models across three periods (1940-1990, 2040-2090 and 2240-2290). By applying vertical baroclinic mode decomposition to ocean density, we extract wind projection coefficients (pn; n is mode number) governing upper-ocean dynamical responses. The ICM with the explicitly prescribed climatological fields, including stratification and the thermocline structure, successfully reproduces the non-monotonic ENSO shifts, which is illustrated to be primarily driven by opposite changes in p1 and p2 post 2140. Sensitivity experiments further confirm stratification as the dominant modulator. This study establishes a coherent mechanistic framework for disentangling stratification impacts on ENSO in climate model projections under global warming.
WOS关键词INTERMEDIATE COUPLED MODEL ; EL-NINO ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODULATION ; CO2 ; FREQUENCY ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS
资助项目Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Foundation)[BK20250746, BK20240718]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001732289700002
出版者NATURE PORTFOLIO
源URL[http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/204976]  
专题海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan
作者单位1.Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Safety Engn, Fuzhou, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Qingdao Marine Sci & Technol Ctr, Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao, Peoples R China
6.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Marine Sci, State Key Lab Climate Syst Predict & Risk Manageme, Nanjing, Peoples R China
7.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Atmosphere Sci, State Key Lab Climate Syst Predict & Risk Manageme, Nanjing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Rong-Hua,Chen, Maonan,Gao, Chuan,et al. Upper-ocean stratification changes control ENSO amplitude shift under sustained global warming[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2026,17(1):12.
APA Zhang, Rong-Hua.,Chen, Maonan.,Gao, Chuan.,Zhou, Lu.,Zhi, Hai.,...&Wang, Hongna.(2026).Upper-ocean stratification changes control ENSO amplitude shift under sustained global warming.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,17(1),12.
MLA Zhang, Rong-Hua,et al."Upper-ocean stratification changes control ENSO amplitude shift under sustained global warming".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 17.1(2026):12.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：海洋研究所

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