Post-Hiatus Enhancement of ENSO Forecast Skill via Salinity-Mediated Indo-Pacific Inter-Basin Coupling
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Jing1; Sprintall, Janet2; Wang, Haoyu1; Li, Xiaofeng1 |
| 刊名 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-04-08 |
| 卷号 | 53期号:7页码:11 |
| 关键词 | ENSO Indonesian throughflow salinity Indian Ocean |
| ISSN号 | 0094-8276 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2025GL119444 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Xiaofeng(lixf@qdio.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability has notably declined since the 1998-2013 global warming hiatus, challenging conventional sea surface temperature (SST)-based forecast models. We identify sea surface salinity (SSS) as a critical yet underappreciated driver for restoring ENSO forecast skill post-hiatus. Through an interpretable deep learning framework (STPNet), we show that incorporating SSS sustains forecast skill above 0.8 beyond 20-month leads, outperforming SST-only predictions after 2014. Attribution analysis reveals that Indo-Pacific SSS anomalies promote interbasin heat redistribution and preserve ocean memory critical for ENSO evolution. The Indonesian Throughflow functions as a salinity-sensitive conduit, where salinity-mediated geostrophic transport compensates for thermally induced weakening, sustaining Indo-Pacific connectivity. These findings reveal a new thermohaline pathway influencing ENSO forecasts and show that explainable AI can boost long-lead forecast skill while uncovering key ocean-climate interactions, offering a salinity-informed strategy to improve future predictions under climate change. |
| WOS关键词 | INDIAN-OCEAN ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; BARRIER LAYER ; EL-NINO ; VARIABILITY ; SLOWDOWN |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science of China[92258301] ; United States National Science Foundation[OCE-1851316] |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001734862700001 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/204979]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Xiaofeng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Jing,Sprintall, Janet,Wang, Haoyu,et al. Post-Hiatus Enhancement of ENSO Forecast Skill via Salinity-Mediated Indo-Pacific Inter-Basin Coupling[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2026,53(7):11. |
| APA | Wang, Jing,Sprintall, Janet,Wang, Haoyu,&Li, Xiaofeng.(2026).Post-Hiatus Enhancement of ENSO Forecast Skill via Salinity-Mediated Indo-Pacific Inter-Basin Coupling.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,53(7),11. |
| MLA | Wang, Jing,et al."Post-Hiatus Enhancement of ENSO Forecast Skill via Salinity-Mediated Indo-Pacific Inter-Basin Coupling".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 53.7(2026):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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