Applicability of Mixed Copula Modeling for Met-Ocean Joint Probability Distributions in China's Sea Areas
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Xue2; Feng, Xing-ru1,4; Cai, Li3; Fang, Yong2; Han, Xiao-feng2; Si, Zong-shang1,4 |
| 刊名 | CHINA OCEAN ENGINEERING
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-03-24 |
| 页码 | 15 |
| 关键词 | met-ocean variables mixture copula model environmental contours joint probability distribution China's sea areas |
| ISSN号 | 0890-5487 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s13344-026-0087-0 |
| 通讯作者 | Feng, Xing-ru(fengxingru07@qdio.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | This study addresses the complex dependencies among met-ocean variables across China's Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea under dynamic marine environments, evaluating the applicability of mixed copula models for joint distribution modeling in both shallow and deep-water regions. Leveraging three decades of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis data from 1994 to 2023, mixed lognormal and mixed three-parameter Weibull distributions are employed to enhance marginal fitting for met-ocean variables. Mixed copula models were constructed using five common copula functions-Gumbel, Student's t, Gaussian, Clayton, and Frank-selected to capture the diverse tail dependence characteristics of bivariate met-ocean variable structures. Parameter estimation was performed via the expectation-maximization algorithm, and the optimized model was integrated with the inverse first-order reliability method to generate environmental contours corresponding to design return periods. Results indicate that the mixed marginal distribution model improves the fit to the marginal distributions of met-ocean variables; although bivariate distributions resist unique characterization due to substantial spatial and bathymetric variations in dependence structures, the mixed copula models effectively represent these complex interdependencies. The environmental contours derived from the established mixed copula joint distribution provide accurate design parameters for marine engineering applications, thereby addressing regional systematic limitations and methodological constraints. This approach offers a robust scientific basis for engineering safety assessments in China's major sea areas. |
| WOS关键词 | SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT ; BIVARIATE DISTRIBUTIONS ; BOHAI SEA ; ENERGY |
| 资助项目 | Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001721750200001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER MEDIZIN VERLAG GmBH |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/205136]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Feng, Xing-ru |
| 作者单位 | 1.Qingdao Marine Sci & Technol Ctr, Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao 266000, Peoples R China 2.Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Math & Syst Sci, Qingdao 266590, Peoples R China 3.PowerChina HuaDong Engn Corp Ltd, Hangzhou 311122, Peoples R China 4.Inst Oceanol, Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266000, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Xue,Feng, Xing-ru,Cai, Li,et al. Applicability of Mixed Copula Modeling for Met-Ocean Joint Probability Distributions in China's Sea Areas[J]. CHINA OCEAN ENGINEERING,2026:15. |
| APA | Zhao, Xue,Feng, Xing-ru,Cai, Li,Fang, Yong,Han, Xiao-feng,&Si, Zong-shang.(2026).Applicability of Mixed Copula Modeling for Met-Ocean Joint Probability Distributions in China's Sea Areas.CHINA OCEAN ENGINEERING,15. |
| MLA | Zhao, Xue,et al."Applicability of Mixed Copula Modeling for Met-Ocean Joint Probability Distributions in China's Sea Areas".CHINA OCEAN ENGINEERING (2026):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
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