Distribution and Evolution of the Debris Cloud from the Fragmentation of Intelsat 33E
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Shu P(舒鹏)1; Zhao, Meng2,3; Wu YY(吴彧琰)1,4; Yang, Zhen2,3; Li YQ(李语强)1 |
| 刊名 | AEROSPACE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-03-25 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:4 |
| 关键词 | space debris in-orbit fragmentations probability density collision risks |
| DOI | 10.3390/aerospace13040303 |
| 产权排序 | 第1完成单位 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The breakup of Intelsat 33E on 19 October 2024 posed a potential risk to satellites in the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO). This study analyzes the evolution and distribution of these fragments using a probabilistic approach. The initial distribution of the fragments, derived from the NASA Standard Breakup Model, indicates the generation of 4393 fragments larger than 1 cm. The spatial propagation of these fragments is modeled analytically in the Earth-Centered Earth-Fixed reference frame, showing the formation of high-density ring structures in the equatorial plane from 24 h to 28 days after the breakup. The orbits of 36 cataloged fragments are retrieved and compared with the probability density. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations validate the probabilistic model and highlight its efficiency in capturing low-probability events. Collision risks to other GEO satellites are assessed, showing that the top 10% of satellites encounter a collision probability of up to 10-8 after 28 days. Satellites near the equatorial plane are at higher risk, whereas those with higher inclinations are less affected. These findings underscore the need for enhanced monitoring and mitigation strategies for GEO breakup events, given the challenges in detecting small fragments. |
| 学科主题 | 地球科学 ; 空间物理学 ; 空间物理探测 ; 航空、航天科学技术 ; 天文学 ; 天体测量学 |
| URL标识 | 查看原文 |
| 出版地 | MDPI AG, Grosspeteranlage 5, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND |
| WOS关键词 | SPACE DEBRIS ; BREAKUP ; MODEL |
| 资助项目 | Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12303082]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12432017]; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12372052] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001749264000001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[12303082, 12432017, 12372052] |
| 版本 | 出版稿 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ynao.ac.cn/handle/114a53/29205]  |
| 专题 | 云南天文台_应用天文研究组 |
| 通讯作者 | Shu P(舒鹏) |
| 作者单位 | 1.Yunnan Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650011, China; 2.College of Aerospace Science and Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410077, China; 3.State Key Laboratory of Space System Operation and Control, Changsha 410077, China; 4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shu P,Zhao, Meng,Wu YY,et al. Distribution and Evolution of the Debris Cloud from the Fragmentation of Intelsat 33E[J]. AEROSPACE,2026,13(4). |
| APA | 舒鹏,Zhao, Meng,吴彧琰,Yang, Zhen,&李语强.(2026).Distribution and Evolution of the Debris Cloud from the Fragmentation of Intelsat 33E.AEROSPACE,13(4). |
| MLA | 舒鹏,et al."Distribution and Evolution of the Debris Cloud from the Fragmentation of Intelsat 33E".AEROSPACE 13.4(2026). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：云南天文台
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