蒋家沟泥石流输沙年际变化及其灾变预测
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | 刘希林 ; 倪化勇 |
| 刊名 | 山地学报
 |
| 出版日期 | 2006 |
| 卷号 | 24期号:5页码:550-554 |
| 关键词 | 蒋家沟 泥石流 年输沙量 等维新息灾变模型 灾变预测 |
| 其他题名 | Variation Property of Annual Sediment Yield of Debris Flow along Jiangjia Ravine and Catastrophe Forecast |
| 通讯作者 | 刘希林 |
| 合作状况 | 其它 |
| 中文摘要 | 根据云南东川蒋家沟泥石流年输沙量的时序资料，分析了蒋家沟泥石流输沙的年际变化特征，发现历年输沙量变动幅度大，波动明显且年际变化频繁，用灰色系统理论的灾变预测方法，建立泥石流年输沙量的等维新息灾变预测模型，能够对未来可能出现的灾变年份进行较好的预测。在前期研究基础上，补充最新观测资料，建立了新的灾变时间序列和相应的等维新息灾变预测模型，使蒋家沟泥石流的年输沙量灾变预测得以连续进行，并对预测结果进行了检验，效果较为理想。 |
| 英文摘要 | Annual sediment yield of debris flow is an important physical index that reflects both the forming condi tion，carrying ability and potential danger degree．Thus the sediment yield of debris flow is of great significance to the design of prevention and mitigation projects against debris flow hazard．Based on the sequential data of the an— nual sediment yield of debris flow along Jiangjia ravine，it can be found that the annual sediment yield has been changing year by year with large scope and high frequency．Several fitting methods such as linear fitting，logarith— mie fitting，polynomial fitting and exponential fitting had been tried，but all the results were unsatisfied with < 0．1．In this paper，based on the sequential data of the annual sediment yield of debris flow along Jian~ia ravine， the variation property of the annual sediment yield was analyzed and then was forecasted according to the equal dimension- lqew information model of grey theory，which makes the short—term catastrophe forecast for the annual sedi— merit yield of debris flow can be done continuously．This research provides some useful results for the forecast of oc— currence year with large magnitude of debris flow in Jiangjia ravine． |
| 分类号 | P642.23 |
| 资助信息 | 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所创新前沿项目 |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-07-21 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/1057]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 刘希林,倪化勇. 蒋家沟泥石流输沙年际变化及其灾变预测[J]. 山地学报,2006,24(5):550-554. |
| APA | 刘希林,&倪化勇.(2006).蒋家沟泥石流输沙年际变化及其灾变预测.山地学报,24(5),550-554. |
| MLA | 刘希林,et al."蒋家沟泥石流输沙年际变化及其灾变预测".山地学报 24.5(2006):550-554. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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