石榴树包滑坡是长江三峡河段中大型滑坡之一——黄腊石滑坡群的一个重要组成部分,它位于巴东县城东1.5km的长江北岸,下距三峡坝址66km.该滑坡体现代变形活动自20世纪70年代以来渐趋明显,特别是三峡水库蓄水以来,滑坡的变形十分显著.本文在调查分析石榴树包滑坡形态特征、结构特征及变形破坏特征的基础上,基于滑坡10多年的变形监测资料,研究了石榴树包滑坡的影响因素和变形演化特征和规律,并利用灰色GM（1,1）模型预测了滑坡的变形发展趋势,为滑坡减灾防灾实践和滑坡治理方案的设计提供了依据.

Shiliushubao landslide is an important part of Huanglashi landslide group, one of the largest landslides in three gorges. It is located on the north bank of Yangtze river, 1.5 km east of Badong sity and 66 km upstream of three gorges dam. The displacement of the landslide became more and more visible in 1970s, has become especially apparent since the reservoir impounding. Based on the geomorphy, geology, and deformation - failure features of Shiliushubao landslide, as well as the slope movement monitoring dada of more than 10 years, the influence factors and the deformation development process are studied. The deformation development tendency was predicted by using the GM（1,1） model. This paper provides some useful data for the measures of landslide prevention and the design of landslide treatment.