要准确预报泥石流的发生、到达时间和规模,需要了解流域的基本情况以及泥石流形成的原因和条件。本文以云南省东川蒋家沟为例,以流域降雨产流量为基础,对泥石流暴发,到达时间及暴发规模的预报作了系统的研究。以10min降雨雨强为基本依据,计算10min降雨的产流及形成径流的单宽流量,从而预报泥石流的发生,由此可以计算泥石流的运动速度、预报泥石流的到达时间。以10min激发降雨的产流及形成径流总量,结合泥石流中泥沙体积浓度和流域堵塞系数,计算出泥石流总量,从而预报泥石流的发生规模。

It is necessary to know the information of basic when forecast the occurring of debris flow, the arriving time of debris flow and the scale of debris flow. Some research on the Jiangjia gully, Dongchuan, Yunnan province: the unit discharge by runoff of rainfall, the velocity of debris flow and the volume of debris flow. By the high intense rainfall of 10 minutes and its runoff, the unit discharge can be obtained and it can be used to forecast debris flow. Also by this unit discharge, the velocity and the time of arriving of debris flow can be obtained. Base the large intense 10 minutes rainfall, the volume of debris flow can be calculated by runoff, the volume concentration of sediment and the block up coefficient of debris flow basin. It is the scale forecast.