基于GIS的泥石流预报中降水分析及应用
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | 江玉红 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2008 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 成都 |
| 导师 | 韦方强 |
| 关键词 | 泥石流 预报 前期降水 预报降水 凉山州 |
| 其他题名 | GIS-based Analysis of Precipitation in Debris Flow Forecast and Its Application |
| 学位专业 | 自然地理学 |
| 中文摘要 | 降水是泥石流形成的三大基本条件（物质条件、能量条件和降水条件）中最具动态性的因素，也是泥石流预报中的关键因子，对泥石流预报中监测和预报降水的分析直接关系到泥石流预报结果的准确性。因此，对泥石流预报中的降水的分析和应用的研究已成为当前泥石流预报研究的热点和难点之一。本研究在深入分析不同时段降水对泥石流形成作用的基础上，确定了泥石流预报中的降水分类，探讨了不同时段降水的获取方法，并重点研究了前期观测降水的内插分析方法，以四川省凉山彝族自治州为例建立了基于气候特征的考虑经度、纬度、高程、坡度、坡向和遮蔽度等下垫面因素影响的观测降水内插分析模型，为泥石流预报提供更加准确可靠的前期降水数据支持。同时，基于GIS平台，研究开发了精细化降水数值预报产品、多普勒天气雷达降水预报产品和前期降水的分析处理模块，并将其应用到凉山州泥石流短临预报和西南地区泥石流短期预报中。通过该项研究，取得了以下结论和研究成果：（1）引发泥石流形成的降水包括当次降水和前期降水。前期降水由两部分构成，一部分是通过径流、蒸发、植物蒸腾等散失的部分，称为前期损失降水量；另一部分是仍保存在土壤里的部分，仍可以参与下次泥石流的活动，称为前期有效降水量。当次降水量也由两部分构成，一部分是泥石流发生前的部分，称为当次有效降水量；另一部分是泥石流发生后的部分，称为剩余降水量。（2）降水是泥石流预报中必须输入的关键数据，降水的监测和预报技术条件在很大程度上决定了泥石流预报的时空尺度。根据当前降水监测和预报技术水平，建立了不同时空尺度的泥石流预报体系。其中，不同途径获得的前期有效降水量、预报降水量和预报降水强度的分析和处理是泥石流预报中降水分析处理的核心。（3）以四川省凉山州为例，利用区内及周围33个测站30年（1977—2006）的降水观测数据，根据气候特征具有相对稳定性的特点建立了基于气候特征的，综合考虑经度、纬度、高程、坡度、坡向和遮蔽度等影响的，利用测站实际降水观测数据进行修正的降水内插模型，为前期有效降水的分析提供了更为准确可靠的内插分析方法。（4）精细化降水数值预报和多普勒天气雷达降水预报产品皆可以作为泥石流预报中预报降水量和预报降水强度获取的有效来源，但无法直接应用于泥石流预报中。针对此问题，分别建立了精细化降水数值预报产品和多普勒天气雷达降水预报产品的分析处理方法，为泥石流预报提供预报降水量和预报降水强度数据支持。（5）以GIS技术为手段，利用建立的前期降水量内插分析模型和预报降水分析处理方法，开发了多源降水分析处理系统，为泥石流预报提供准确可靠的降水数据支持，并将其应用到凉山州和西南地区泥石流预报系统中。本研究的创新点在于综合考虑影响降水分布的下垫面因素，以研究区相对稳定的气候特征为基础，利用经度、纬度、高程、坡度、坡向和遮蔽度等下垫面因素，建立了一定时段降水内插分析模型，更加准确地将离散的测站降水观测数据转化成空间连续的面降水数据，为泥石流预报提供较为准确可靠的高空间分辨率的前期降水数据。 |
| 英文摘要 | Precipitation is the most dynamic factor among the three basic factors (matter, energy and precipitation) of debris flow formation, and also a key element in debris flow forecast. Analysis on observed precipitation and forecast precipitation directly influences the accuracy of debris flow forecast. Researches on analysis of precipitation in debris flow forecast and its application have become a hotspot and a difficult point as well.In this paper, based on an in-depth analysis on the functions of precipitation in different periods for debris flow formation, precipitation in debris flow forecast was classified, different means of precipitation obtained in different periods were discussed and an interpolation method of antecedent observed precipitation was mainly studied. The interpolation method considered underlying surface including longitude, latitude, elevation, slope, aspect, and shelter. It was able to provide more accurate and reliable antecedent precipitation support for debris flow forecast in Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province. Based on the GIS platform, a system was developed, and it could process fine numerical forecast precipitation, Doppler weather radar forecast precipitation, and observed precipitation. The precipitation processing module was put into use in the Liangshan Prefecture’s impending debris flow forecast system and the South-western China region short term debris flow forecast system. Through the study, the following conclusions and achievements were obtained:(1) Precipitation of debris flow formation included antecedent precipitation and current precipitation. Antecedent precipitation had two parts: one was antecedent losing precipitation which was lost through runoff, evaporation and plant transpiration, the other was effective antecedent precipitation which stayed in soil and took part in the next debris flow. Current precipitation also had two parts: effective current precipitation before the debris flow taking place and residual current precipitation after it.(2) Precipitation was the key input data in debris flow forecast. Means of precipitation monitoring and forecasting to large extent determined the temporal and spatial scales of debris flow forecast. In the case of current precipitation monitoring and forecasting level, different temporal and spatial scales of debris flow forecast systems were erected. Among these systems, analyses and processes on effective antecedent precipitation, forecast precipitation and forecast precipitation intensity obtained by different means were the core precipitation process.(3) Illustrated by the case of Liangshan Prefecture, an interpolation model of antecedent observed precipitation was erected. It was able to provide a more accurate and reliable interpolation analysis method for effective antecedent precipitation. The model used 30 years’ observed precipitation data of 33 weather stations in and around research region, considering underlying surface factors including longitude, latitude, elevation, slope, aspect, and shelter. And interpolation results were revised by real observed precipitation data.(4) Fine numerical forecast precipitation and Doppler weather radar forecast precipitation are both effective sources of forecast precipitation and precipitation intensity in debris flow forecast, but they could not be applied directly in debris flow forecast. To solve this problem, two methods to respectively process fine numerical forecast precipitation and Doppler weather radar forecast precipitation were erected to provide forecast precipitation and precipitation intensity support for debris flow forecast.(5) By means of GIS, multi-source precipitation processing system, based on the interpolation model of antecedent precipitation and methods of forecast precipitation, was developed. The system was able to provide more accurate and reliable precipitation support for debris flow forecast, and was applied in the Liangshan Prefecture’s debris flow forecast and in south-western China region’s.The innovation of the paper is that it considered the underlying surface factors including longitude, latitude, elevation, slope, aspect, shelter and etc., and erected a certain-period of precipitation interpolation model. It accurately extended discrete observed precipitation to continuous areal precipitation, and provided more accurate and reliable high spatial resolution antecedent precipitation for debris flow forecast. |
| 学科主题 | 灾害学 |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-10-14 |
| 分类号 | P45;P40 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2199]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 江玉红. 基于GIS的泥石流预报中降水分析及应用[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2008. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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