区域生态承载力的动态分析与模拟——以岷江上游黑水县为例
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | 周红艺 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2008 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 成都 |
| 导师 | 贺秀斌 |
| 关键词 | 生态承载力 系统动力学模型 状态空间模型 动态分析 模拟 黑水县 |
| 学位专业 | 自然地理学 |
| 中文摘要 | 生态承载力是区域可持续发展状态定量测度的指标, 是人类可持续发展度量和管理决策的依据，也是当前生态学、地学等领域研究的热点、难点和理论前沿。由于区域系统的高度复杂性与不可实验性，如何定量评价和模拟区域生态承载力成为目前研究的难点。本研究采用系统动力学和状态空间法进行建模研究区域生态承载力的动态变化，首次建立了一套从“过程动态模拟——综合定量评价——区域发展模式选择与调控措施”的区域生态承载力研究的模型方法体系，并以岷江上游的黑水县为案例，通过模型的具体应用，分析了黑水县生态承载力的历史年动态变化，模拟了黑水县生态承载力在不同的发展模式下的发展动态，根据模拟结果进行发展模式筛选，确定了对黑水县发展起关键作用的调控指标及其需要调控的范围。具体来说，本文取得了以下研究进展：（1）在生态承载力理论探索方面，系统地探讨和阐释了生态承载力概念的由来、演化、发展，广泛收集和吸纳了生态科学和地球科学等多学科的最新研究成果，分析了目前生态承载力研究存在的问题及其原因。在总结前人研究的基础上，给区域生态承载力赋予了新的定义，使其内涵更系统、多元和综合；并重点对生态承载力诸多研究方法的实用性进行了探讨，指出生态承载力研究面临的挑战，为以后生态承载力的研究指明了方向。（2）根据中国实际情况，采用系统动力学方法，首次在系统动力学软件——Vensim中，建立了基于县域尺度的区域生态承载力过程动态模型（人口、经济、社会、资源和环境五大子系统的系统动力学模型）。通过黑水县的实际应用表明，本模型的模拟值与实际值的相对误差控制在12%以内 ，计算的泰尔不等系数U <0.621,说明模型模拟结果整体误差控制较好，可以认为本模型的结构与真实系统在行为上具有相似性，模型结构合理，具有可操作性。（3）引入状态空间法进行生态承载力的定量评价，并从区域系统的复杂性角度考虑，在全国31个省、直辖市和自治区（代表不同的区域自然资源、环境状况和社会经济发展水平）的统计资料中，根据表征区域特征的五大子系统的众多指标中，经过合理的方法筛选出了基于状态空间法的评价区域生态承载力的30个指标，并设计为四个层次（即资源供给能力、环境纳污能力、人类经济社会支持能力、发展承压力），通过黑水县的实际应用，表明状态空间模型及其评价指标体系具有很强的科学性和可操作性。（4）在案例研究方面，系统集成了过程动态模型（SD模型）和状态空间模型，分析了黑水县从1985-2005年来其生态承载力的动态变化，其总体生态承载状况处于可载状态，其发展趋势是处于下降通道。本研究通过设定不同的调控参数，确定了三种发展模式（经济高效、生态环保和综合协调）来模拟黑水未来生态承载力的动态变化，研究表明综合协调发展模式的生态承载力在模拟时段内（2006-2025）最高，说明黑水在该模式的发展下有利于可持续发展。以模拟设定的调控参数为依据，确定了对黑水发展起关键作用的调控指标及其需要调控的范围，对黑水县今后的发展具有实践指导意义。 |
| 英文摘要 | Regional Ecological Carrying Capacity(RECC), one of the most appealing，sophisticated topic and theoretical frontier in modern ecology, is an important symbol to weigh the regional sustainable development and natural constraint which provides a necessary basis for human sustainable development decision-making. With intricate and non-experimental property, the regional system can not be simulated with a accurate mathematical model, so the research objective is to explore a new way to create a systematic model for sophisticated system, i.e., using System Dynamics(SD) model and State Space(SS) model to simulate the relationship which can’t be ensured easily. On the basis of SD model and SS model, the system dynamic response was simulated in variant parameters; it is significance for us to know and manipulate Regional Sustainable Development System. So , in this dissertation, RECC of Heishui County was studied, resorting to SD model and SS model, by syncretizing these methods to simulate system future trends in variant development modes, simultaneously, the appraisal model was established, and so the best future development route of region could be selected. The study was carried out including four main parts:（1）In the part of theoretical discussion, the capacity’s history, evolution and development was elucidated by the numbers based on the recent achievement of ecology and geo-science. Then the RECC was defined based on the problems of recent studies of RECC and the reasons. Last the practicability of many methods to study RECC was discussed and the challenges in RECC studies were raised, which points out the orientation for future studies of RECC.（2）According to the fact of china, using SD method, The RECC SD model (population SD model, economy SD model, society SD model, resource SD model and environment SD model) are first established in softer Vensim. Then, taking Heishui County as a case study, relative error of the simulated value and fact value is less than 12% and the U<0.621. The result shows that the RECC SD model is a good and practicable way for simulating the fact system.（3）The SS model is established for quantitative evaluation the RECC. The indexes for quantitative evaluation RECC were screen out. Those indexes were designed as the resource supplying, environmental capacity, the supporting of human, the bearing pressure of developing. SS model were put forward to evaluate Heishui’s RECC. The result shows that the SS model is a good model for quantitative evaluation of the RECC and the indexes are practicable.（4）In the part of case analysis, SD model and SS model were integrated to evaluate the dynamic change of RECC from 1985-2005 in Heishui county. Results show that ecosystem of study area is supportable as a whole, but the RECC is dropping. Three development modes, including high economical scheme, resource and environment protected scheme, economy-environment coordinate scheme, are used to predict and simulate the dynamic tendency of RECC from 2005 to 2025 in study area by setting different policy parameters values. Results show that the economy-environment coordinate scheme, which achieved the highest simulated value of RECC, is most favorable to regional sustainable development of study area. From appraising and simulating results, the key policy parameters and the value range of parameters in system modeling can be educed, which has great practical and guiding significance in the future development of Heishui County. |
| 学科主题 | 生态学 |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-10-15 |
| 分类号 | TV2;P34 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2217]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 周红艺. 区域生态承载力的动态分析与模拟——以岷江上游黑水县为例[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2008. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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