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基于多普勒天气雷达技术的区域短临泥石流预报系统——以四川省凉山州为例
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | 张京红 |
| 学位类别 | 博士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2006 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 成都 |
| 导师 | 刘淑珍 ; 韦方强 |
| 关键词 | 泥石流 预报 中小区域 多普勒天气雷达 降水 |
| 其他题名 | A Dopplar-Weaher-Radar-Based system of Regional Predication of Impending Debris Flow |
| 学位专业 | 自然地理学 |
| 中文摘要 | 泥石流预测预报是泥石流减灾的有效手段之一，更是避免或减少重大人员伤亡的重要方法之一，研究建立有效的泥石流短临预报方法不仅具有重要的理论意义，更是减灾的迫切需求。本研究通过对泥石流灾害成因的分析研究，建立了中小尺度的区域泥石流短临预报模型，阐述了各类数据的获取方法，详细探讨了通过多普勒天气雷达探测技术获取未来3h预报降水量和小时雨强的方法。建立了通过多普勒天气雷达探测技术获取未来3h预报降水量和小时雨强的可拓模型，并以此为基础构建了中小尺度区域泥石流短临预报应用系统。选择泥石流危害严重的四川省凉山彝族自治州作为研究区，在凉山州泥石流形成环境背景和泥石流灾害数据库的基础上，利用统计方法建立了凉山州泥石流短临预报的标准物元模型，确定了预报模型中的各类参数。利用GIS技术研究开发了凉山州泥石流短临预报应用系统，并对2005年5月31日的泥石流灾害进行了模拟预报。通过以上研究，取得了如下研究成果：（1）建立了中小尺度区域泥石流短临预报模型，阐述了模型中各类数据的获取和分析方法。（2） 利用雷达回波基本反射率强度、垂直累积液态水和一小时降水等产品建立了多普勒天气雷达估计未来3h降水量和小时雨强的可拓模型，为泥石流短临预报提供了高分辨率和高精度的降水预报支持。（3） 建立了凉山州泥石流形成环境背景和泥石流灾害数据库，包括1：5万地形数据，1：20万地质数据、1：10万土地利用状况数据、泥石流沟分布数据、历史上泥石流灾害事件数据等。（4） 以凉山州泥石流形成环境背景和泥石流灾害数据库为基础，利用统计学方法确定了泥石流短临预报模型中的各参数，建立了凉山州泥石流短临预报的可拓模型。（5） 将GIS技术与区域泥石流短临预报相结合，利用COM技术和ArcObjects组件开发技术，开发了多普勒天气雷达探测数据接口，建立了基于多普勒天气雷达探测技术的凉山州泥石流短临预报应用系统。实现了凉山州泥石流无缝隙的滚动预报，预报间隔为1h，预报时效为3h。本研究的创新点主要表现在以下几个方面：（1）首次使用先进的多普勒天气雷达探测技术获取高精度的降水监测预报产品，进行泥石流短临预报。（2） 研究建立了利用多普勒天气雷达估计未来3h降水量和小时雨强的可拓预报模型, 为泥石流短临预报提供了高分辨率和高精度的降水预报支持。有效地解决了因降水预报的不确定性导致的泥石流预报结果的不确定性问题，使泥石流预报的准确性得到了显著提高。（3）研究建立了预报频次高、预报结果更新快的区域泥石流短临预报模型和方法，实现了区域泥石流灾害的无缝隙高密度滚动预报，滚动预报间隔为1h，预报时效为3h。（4）以GIS技术为工具，建立了我国第一个具有多功能、自动化、可业务化运行的中小区域短临泥石流预报系统，为中小尺度区域泥石流减灾提供了有力的手段。 |
| 英文摘要 | Debris flow prediction/forecast is one of the efficiently means for mitigation, and furthermore one of the most important methods to maximally avoid and reduce fatal loss and casualty caused by debris flow disasters. So in this way, the foundation of sufficient prediction method of impending debris flow not only has significant meaning, but also is the urgency desire of mitigation. In this research, according to the analysis and study of reasons of debris flow disaster formation, the middle and small-scale regional prediction model of impending debris flow is set up, and methods of various data getting are explained, among which the method of precipitation forecast in coming 3h by detecting technology of Doppler weather radar is discussed in detail. An extension model of predicting the total precipitation and the maximum precipitation of 1h in coming 3h is developed based on detecting technology of Doppler weather radar, furthermore the middle and small-scale regional prediction system of impending debris flow based on Doppler weather radar is constructed. Liangshan where debris flow disasters are serious in Sichuan Province is selected as a case study area. The standard matter element model of debris flow prediction for Liangshan is made out with statistics method based on the conditions of debris flow formation and the information of debris flow disasters. And an application system of regional prediction of impending debris flow is established for Liangshan with GIS technology. The debris flow disaster event on 31 May 2005 is simulated with this application system to test it. The following conclusions can be drawn from the research: (1) The middle and small-scale regional prediction model of impending debris flow is set up, and the methods of various data getting and analysis in prediction model are explained. (2) An extension model of predicting the total precipitation and the maximum precipitation of 1h in coming 3h is carried out with the products of Doppler weather radar including base reflectivity, vertically integrated liquid and 1h precipitation. This model can provide high resolution and accuracy precipitation forecast to the prediction of impending debris flow. (3) A database including conditions of debris flow formation, debris flow distribution and disasters events in history is constructed. The main content of the database includes 1:50,000 topography data, 1:200,000 geologic data, 1:100,000 land use data, 1176 debris flow valleys, 120 disasters events in history in Liangshan, etc. (4) The various index in the model of prediction of impending debris flows are determined with statistics method based on the database. Then a prediction system of impending debris flow for Liangshan is developed with ARC/GIS. (5) Combined GIS technology with regional prediction of impending debris flow, the detecting data interface of Doppler weather radar is exploited under the support of COM technology and AcrObjects module developing technology. Furthermore the application system of regional prediction of impending debris flow for Liangshan based on Doppler weather radar is set up, which is a rolling system with 1h prediction time interval and 3h forecast range. The innovations of this research are as followings: (1) The detecting information of advanced Doppler weather radar is used first time to get more credible rainfall monitor/forecast products, and to predict impending debris flow in middle and small-scale region. (2) An extension model of predicting the total precipitation and the maximum precipitation of 1h in coming 3h is carried out based on Doppler weather radar detecting technology. The model can provide high-resolution and more accuracy forecast precipitation to debris flow prediction. In this case, the uncertainty of debris flow prediction caused by the uncertainty of precipitation forecast is effectively solved, so that the precision of debris flow prediction results is greatly improved. (3) A regional prediction system of impending debris flow is set up, which has high-frequency prediction and quickly updating results, and realizes no-time-gap and high-frequency rolling prediction of regional debris flow. The system has 1h prediction time interval and 3h prediction range. (4) Under the support of GIS technology, a regional prediction system of impending debris flow for Liangshan is developed first time, which has multi-function,and can automatically run. It is a powerful tool for debris flow disasters mitigation in Liangshan. |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-10-22 |
| 分类号 | TP7;TN9 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2310]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 张京红. 基于多普勒天气雷达技术的区域短临泥石流预报系统——以四川省凉山州为例[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2006. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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