Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ye, Lin1; Grimm, Nancy B.2 |
| 刊名 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2013-09-01 |
| 卷号 | 120期号:1-2页码:419-431 |
| 关键词 | ASSESSMENT-TOOL SWAT MODEL NITROGEN SOIL HYDROLOGY ECOSYSTEM SIMULATIONS PHOSPHORUS RESPONSES EROSION |
| ISSN号 | 0165-0009 |
| 通讯作者 | Grimm, NB (reprint author), Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, POB 874501, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. |
| 中文摘要 | The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m(3)/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha(-1) d(-1)), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today's mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. |
| 英文摘要 | The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m(3)/s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha(-1) d(-1)), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today's mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. |
| WOS标题词 | Science & Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine ; Physical Sciences |
| 类目[WOS] | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 研究领域[WOS] | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 关键词[WOS] | ASSESSMENT-TOOL ; SWAT MODEL ; NITROGEN ; SOIL ; HYDROLOGY ; ECOSYSTEM ; SIMULATIONS ; PHOSPHORUS ; RESPONSES ; EROSION |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 资助信息 | Sycamore Creek LTREB (NSF) [DEB-0918262]; Central Arizona-Phoenix LTER [DEB-0423704, BCS-1026865] |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000323276900029 |
| 公开日期 | 2014-01-03 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ihb.ac.cn/handle/342005/19547]  |
| 专题 | 水生生物研究所_淡水生态学研究中心_期刊论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Hydrobiol, State Key Lab Freshwater Ecol & Biotechnol, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China 2.Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ye, Lin,Grimm, Nancy B.. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2013,120(1-2):419-431. |
| APA | Ye, Lin,&Grimm, Nancy B..(2013).Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest.CLIMATIC CHANGE,120(1-2),419-431. |
| MLA | Ye, Lin,et al."Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest".CLIMATIC CHANGE 120.1-2(2013):419-431. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：水生生物研究所
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