Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | ZHUANG Jian-qi ; IQBAL Javed ; PENG Jian-bing ; LIU Tie-ming |
| 刊名 | Journal of Mountain Science
 |
| 出版日期 | 2014-03 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:2页码:345-359 |
| 关键词 | Landslide Probability prediction model Real-time monitoring Xi’an |
| 通讯作者 | PENG Jian-bing |
| 英文摘要 | Landslides are increasing since the 1980s in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China. This is due to the increase of the frequency and intensity of precipitation caused by complex geological structures, the presence of steep landforms, seasonal heavy rainfall, and the intensifcation of human activities. In this study, we propose a landslide prediction model based on the analysis of intraday rainfall (IR) and antecedent effective rainfall (AER). Primarily, the number of days and degressive index of the antecedent effective rainfall which affected landslide occurrences in the areas around Qin Mountains, Li Mountains and Loess Tableland was established. Secondly, the antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall were calculated from weather data which were used to construct critical thresholds for the 10%, 50% and 90% probabilities for future landslide occurrences in Qin Mountain, Li Mountain and Loess Tableland. Finally, the regions corresponding to different warning levels were identified based on the relationship between precipitation and the threshold, that is; “A” region is safe, “B” region is on watch alert, “C” region is on warning alert and “D” region is on severe warning alert. Using this model, a warning program is proposed which can predict rainfall-induced landslides by means of real-time rain gauge data and real-time geo-hazard alert and disaster response programs. Sixteen rain gauges were installed in the Xi’an region by keeping in accordance with the regional geology and landslide risks. Based on the data from gauges, this model accurately achieves the objectives of conducting real-time monitoring as well as providing early warnings of landslides in the Xi’an region. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 公开日期 | 2014-03-06 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/6848]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_Journal of Mountain Science _Journal of Mountain Science-2014_Vol11 No.2 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | ZHUANG Jian-qi,IQBAL Javed,PENG Jian-bing,et al. Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(2):345-359. |
| APA | ZHUANG Jian-qi,IQBAL Javed,PENG Jian-bing,&LIU Tie-ming.(2014).Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China.Journal of Mountain Science,11(2),345-359. |
| MLA | ZHUANG Jian-qi,et al."Probability Prediction Model for Landslide Occurrences in Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China".Journal of Mountain Science 11.2(2014):345-359. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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