太阳10_7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究_I
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | 刘四清 ; 钟秋珍 ; 温靖 ; 窦贤康 |
| 刊名 | 空间科学学报
 |
| 出版日期 | 2010 |
| 卷号 | 30期号:1页码:1-8 |
| 关键词 | 10.7cm射电流量 中期预报 自回归方法 |
| ISSN号 | 0254-6124 |
| 其他题名 | Modeling Research of 10.7cm Solar Radio Flux 27-day Forecast(Ⅰ) |
| 通讯作者 | 北京8701信箱 |
| 中文摘要 | 采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当。 |
| 英文摘要 | Due to the application requirement of high layer atmosphere density model and ionosphere model, the forecast method research of 10.7cm solar radio flux (F10.7 index) is one of the important subjects. The middle term forecast of F10,7 is more difficult than the long term and short term forecast because of the lack of comprehending physical progress and the laws of solar active region revolution. The main middle term forecast methods of F10.7 are time-sequence model and empirical model in consideration of observational information of solar active region. In this paper, autoregression method was applied to the F10.7 27-day forecast research. The period of forecast experiment was from May 1, 1996 to April 12, 2007. According to the results of forecast error analysis,the prediction precision was satisfying when solar activity was low andF10.7 showed obvious 27-day periodic tendency, but was unsatisfying when large region appeared on the disk or disappeared from the disk rapidly. Compared with the forecast result of American Air Force (AAF) forecast from September 21, 2005 to June 7, 2006, the prediction Accuracy of autoregression method was similar to that of AAF. From all of these, we can see this linear predictive method could reflect F1o.7 27-day periodicity, and was applicable for F1o.7 27-day forecast in a certain extent. The research result in this paper is a basis of the further work of constructing precise model of F1o.7 middle term forecast. |
| 学科主题 | 空间环境 |
| 资助信息 | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目,中国科学院知识创新工程 |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.cssar.ac.cn/handle/122/343]  |
| 专题 | 国家空间科学中心_空间环境部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 刘四清,钟秋珍,温靖,等. 太阳10_7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究_I[J]. 空间科学学报,2010,30(1):1-8. |
| APA | 刘四清,钟秋珍,温靖,&窦贤康.(2010).太阳10_7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究_I.空间科学学报,30(1),1-8. |
| MLA | 刘四清,et al."太阳10_7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究_I".空间科学学报 30.1(2010):1-8. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家空间科学中心
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