利用行星际监测数据进行地磁暴预报
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | 薛炳森 ; 龚建村 |
| 刊名 | 空间科学学报
 |
| 出版日期 | 2006 |
| 卷号 | 26期号:3页码:183-186 |
| ISSN号 | 0254-6124 |
| 关键词 | 太阳风 行星际磁场 地磁暴 预报 |
| 其他题名 | Forecasting Dst Index With Artificial Neural Network |
| 通讯作者 | 北京8701信箱 |
| 中文摘要 | 利用全连接神经网络方法应用于地磁Dst指数的预报中.对ACE卫星探测的太阳风和行星际磁场及其变化对未来几小时的Dst指数的影响进行丁统计分析,发现在这些行星际实测参数中,对Dst指数作用较为明显的是太阳风速度,太阳风质子密度和行星际磁场南向分量,同时,当前Dst指数实测值对今后几小时的Dst指数已有很强的制约作用.在统计分析的基础上,建立了全连接神经网络预报模型.由于采用了全连接神经网络结构,模式能够反映出太阳风,行星际磁场等参数与地磁Dst指数参数的复杂联系,可以自动建赢输入参量的最佳组合方式,提高了预报精度.通过利用大量实测数据对神经网络模式进行训练,最终建立了利用优选的ACE卫星行星际监测数据提前2h对Dst指数进行预报．通过检测,预报的误差为14.3％. |
| 英文摘要 | In this work,fully connected neural network,a new kind of artificial network, has been introduced to construct the model for Dst index forecasting. Through studying the mechanism that the geomagnetosphere was affected by the condition of interplanetary media, the geomagnetic dis-turbance index Dst was found to have close,and complex relationship with both the solar wind parameters and IMF features. By employing the measured parameters from ACE spacecraft,these parameters were the solar wind velocity, the density of solar wind plasma and the southward com-ponent of IMF. The most recent measured Dst was also figured to correlate to the Dst several hours ahead.To construct the relationship between interplanetary measured parameters and Dst index,fully connected neural network was introduced.This neural network could demonstrate the complex relationship through building up the internal connection between separate neurons in hidden layer.After a training process with historical data,the forecast model was built during which the neural network will adjust the internal connect weight between units automatically according to the input parameters.The storm time data of 1998 and 1999 was selected in the training process of model construction. The data set during the geomagnetic storm in July 24-29 was used to test the model and the error of the test data was 14.3%. |
| 学科主题 | 空间环境 |
| 资助信息 | 中国科学院知识创新工程方向性项目资助 |
| 收录类别 | CSCD |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| CSCD记录号 | CSCD:2452831 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.cssar.ac.cn/handle/122/428]  |
| 专题 | 国家空间科学中心_空间环境部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 薛炳森,龚建村. 利用行星际监测数据进行地磁暴预报[J]. 空间科学学报,2006,26(3):183-186. |
| APA | 薛炳森,&龚建村.(2006).利用行星际监测数据进行地磁暴预报.空间科学学报,26(3),183-186. |
| MLA | 薛炳森,et al."利用行星际监测数据进行地磁暴预报".空间科学学报 26.3(2006):183-186. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家空间科学中心
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