Prediction tests by using "ISF" method for the geomagnetic disturbances
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wei, F. S. ; Feng, X. S. ; Xu, Y. ; Fan, Q. L. |
| 刊名 | Space Weather
 |
| 出版日期 | 2005 |
| 卷号 | 36期号:12页码:2363-2367 |
| 关键词 | space weather large geomagnetic disturbances prediction tests "ISF" method ips observations solar-cycle interplanetary propagation evolution |
| ISSN号 | 0273-1177 |
| 通讯作者 | 北京8701信箱 |
| 英文摘要 | A so-called "ISF" prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966-1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 19841985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980-1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T-obs, and the prediction, T-pred, Delta T-pred/T-obs <= 10% for 45.8% of all events, <= 30% for 78.3% and > 30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, Sigma K-p,K-obs, and the prediction, Sigma K-p,K-pred, Delta Sigma K-p,(pred)/Sigma K-p,K-obs <= 10% for 41.6% of all events, <= 30% for 79% and <= 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events. |
| 学科主题 | 空间物理 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 原文出处 | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6V3S-4FPN9R8-2-4&_cdi=5738&_user=1999492&_orig=search&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2005&_sk=999639987&view=c&wchp=dGLbVtb-zSkzV&md5=9253e983d67c7589eba087dc7e76bf91&ie=/sdarticle.pdf |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.cssar.ac.cn/handle/122/1036]  |
| 专题 | 国家空间科学中心_空间科学部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wei, F. S.,Feng, X. S.,Xu, Y.,et al. Prediction tests by using "ISF" method for the geomagnetic disturbances[J]. Space Weather,2005,36(12):2363-2367. |
| APA | Wei, F. S.,Feng, X. S.,Xu, Y.,&Fan, Q. L..(2005).Prediction tests by using "ISF" method for the geomagnetic disturbances.Space Weather,36(12),2363-2367. |
| MLA | Wei, F. S.,et al."Prediction tests by using "ISF" method for the geomagnetic disturbances".Space Weather 36.12(2005):2363-2367. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家空间科学中心
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