Statistical Correction of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Tippett Michael K. ; Barnston Anthony G. ; DeWitt David G. |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2005-12 |
| 卷号 | 18期号:23页码:5141-5162 |
| 关键词 | CANONICAL CORRELATION-ANALYSIS NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EL-NINO CROSS-VALIDATION PREDICTIVE SKILL AIR TEMPERATURES ENSO PREDICTION COUPLED MODEL OCEAN MODEL LA-NINA |
| 中文摘要 | This paper is about the statistical correction of systematic errors in dynamical sea surface temperature (SST) prediction systems using linear regression approaches. The typically short histories of model forecasts create difficulties in developing regression-based corrections. The roles of sample size, predictive skill, and systematic error are examined in evaluating the benefit of a linear correction. It is found that with the typical 20 yr of available model SST forecast data, corrections are worth performing when there are substantial deviations in forecast amplitude from that determined by correlation with observations. The closer the amplitude of the uncorrected forecasts is to the optimum squared error-minimizing amplitude, the less likely is a correction to improve skill. In addition to there being less “room for improvement,” this rule is related to the expected degradation in out-of-sample skill caused by sampling error in the estimate of the regression coefficient underlying the correction. Application of multivariate [canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] correction to three dynamical SST prediction models having 20 yr of data demonstrates improvement in the cross-validated skills of tropical Pacific SST forecasts through reduction of systematic errors in pattern structure. Additional beneficial correction of errors orthogonal to the CCA modes is achieved on a per-gridpoint basis for features having smaller spatial scale. Until such time that dynamical models become freer of systematic errors, statistical corrections such as those shown here can make dynamical SST predictions more skillful, retaining their nonlinear physics while also calibrating their outputs to more closely match observations. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 公开日期 | 2014-08-26 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/18143]  |
| 专题 | 海洋研究所_海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tippett Michael K.,Barnston Anthony G.,DeWitt David G.. Statistical Correction of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2005,18(23):5141-5162. |
| APA | Tippett Michael K.,Barnston Anthony G.,&DeWitt David G..(2005).Statistical Correction of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,18(23),5141-5162. |
| MLA | Tippett Michael K.,et al."Statistical Correction of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 18.23(2005):5141-5162. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：海洋研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。