On improving tropical cyclone track forecasts using a scale-selective data assimilation approach: a case study
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Lai, ZJ ; Hao, S ; Peng, SQ ; Liu, B ; Gu, XQ ; Qian, YK |
| 刊名 | NATURAL HAZARDS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2014 |
| 卷号 | 73期号:3页码:1353-1368 |
| 关键词 | Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast Scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) Improvement Sensitivity |
| ISSN号 | 0921-030X |
| 通讯作者 | speng@scsio.ac.cn |
| 中文摘要 | A dynamical downscaling approach based on scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) is applied to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts. The results from a case study of super Typhoon Megi (2010) show that the SSDA approach is very effective in improving the TC track forecasts by fitting the large-scale wind field from the regional model to that from the global forecast system (GFS) forecasts while allowing the small-scale circulation to develop freely in the regional model. A comparison to the conventional spectral-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) indicates that the SSDA approach outperforms the FDDA in TC track forecasts because the former allows the small-scale features in a regional model to develop more freely than the latter due to different techniques used. In addition, a number of numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of SSDA's effect in TC track forecasts to some parameters in SSDA, including the cutoff wave number, the vertical layers of the atmosphere being adjusted, and the interval of SSDA implementation. The results show that the improvements are sensitive in different extent to the above three parameters. |
| 学科主题 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 资助信息 | Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX2-EW-208]; Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (MOST) [2011CB403505]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41076009, 41075080]; Hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 原文出处 | SPRINGER |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000340492700011 |
| 公开日期 | 2014-12-11 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10512]  |
| 专题 | 南海海洋研究所_热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lai, ZJ,Hao, S,Peng, SQ,et al. On improving tropical cyclone track forecasts using a scale-selective data assimilation approach: a case study[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2014,73(3):1353-1368. |
| APA | Lai, ZJ,Hao, S,Peng, SQ,Liu, B,Gu, XQ,&Qian, YK.(2014).On improving tropical cyclone track forecasts using a scale-selective data assimilation approach: a case study.NATURAL HAZARDS,73(3),1353-1368. |
| MLA | Lai, ZJ,et al."On improving tropical cyclone track forecasts using a scale-selective data assimilation approach: a case study".NATURAL HAZARDS 73.3(2014):1353-1368. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：南海海洋研究所
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