Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff over different time scales in the Zhang River basin
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Xia J. |
| 发表日期 | 2014 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Human activities Hydrological modeling Sensitivity based method Different time scales The Zhang River basin variability catchment model uncertainty vegetation china sensitivity prediction streamflow impact |
| 英文摘要 | Most studies on separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff are mainly conducted at an annual scale with few analyses over different time scales, which is especially essential for regional water resources management. This paper investigates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes at annual, seasonal and monthly time scales in the Zhang River basin in North China. Firstly, the changing trends and inflection point are analyzed for hydro-climatic series over different time scales. Then the hydrological modeling based method and sensitivity based method are used to separate the effects. The results show that the effect of climate change is stronger than that of human activities on annual runoff changes. However, the driving factors on runoff are different at seasonal scale. In the wet season, the effect of human activities on runoff, accounting for 57 %, is stronger than that of climate change, while in the dry season climate change is the dominant factor for runoff reduction and the contribution rate is 72 %. Furthermore, the effects of climate change and human activities on monthly runoff changes are various in different months. The separated effects over different time scales in this study may provide more scientific basis for the water resources adaptive management over different time scales in this basin. |
| 出处 | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment |
| 卷 | 28 |
| 期 | 2 |
| 页 | 401-413 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1436-3240 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/29429]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xia J.. Separating the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff over different time scales in the Zhang River basin. 2014. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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