Modeling the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Irrigation over China: Sensitivity to Adjusted Projections
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Leng G. Y. ; Tang Q. H. |
| 刊名 | Journal of Hydrometeorology
 |
| 出版日期 | 2014 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:5页码:2085-2103 |
| 关键词 | water requirements hydrological simulation global irrigation bias correction united-states land-surface precipitation variability scenarios agriculture |
| ISSN号 | 1525-755X |
| 英文摘要 | Because of the limitations of coarse-resolution general circulation models (GCMs), delta change (DC) methods are generally used to derive scenarios of future climate as inputs into impact models. In this paper, the impact of future climate change on irrigation was investigated over China using the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), which was calibrated against observed irrigation water demand (IWD) at the provincial level. The results show large differences in projected changes of IWD variability, extremes, timing, and regional responses between the DC and bias-corrected (BC) methods. For example, 95th-percentile IWD increased by 62% in the BC method compared to only a 28% increase in the DC method. In addition, a shift of seasonal IWD peaks (averaged over the country) to one month later in the year was projected when using the BC method, whereas no evident changes were predicted when using the DC method. Furthermore, low-percentile runoff has larger impacts in the BC method compared with proportional changes in the DC method, indicating that hydrological droughts seem to be exacerbated by increased climate variability. The discrepancies between the two methods were potentially due to the inability of the DC method to capture the changes in precipitation variability. Therefore, the authors highlight the potential effects of climate variability and the sensitivity to the choice of particular strategy-adjusting climate projection in assessing climate change impacts on irrigation. Some caveats, however, should be placed around interpretation of simulated percentage changes for all of China since a large model bias was found in southern China. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 公开日期 | 2014-12-24 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/29780]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_研究生部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leng G. Y.,Tang Q. H.. Modeling the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Irrigation over China: Sensitivity to Adjusted Projections[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology,2014,15(5):2085-2103. |
| APA | Leng G. Y.,&Tang Q. H..(2014).Modeling the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Irrigation over China: Sensitivity to Adjusted Projections.Journal of Hydrometeorology,15(5),2085-2103. |
| MLA | Leng G. Y.,et al."Modeling the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Irrigation over China: Sensitivity to Adjusted Projections".Journal of Hydrometeorology 15.5(2014):2085-2103. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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