Probabilistic Change of Wheat Productivity and Water Use in China for Global Mean Temperature Changes of 1 degrees, 2 degrees, and 3 degrees C
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Liu Y. J. ; Tao F. L. |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 关键词 | climate-change impacts dynamic simulation-model co2 enrichment face winter-wheat crop yields ceres-wheat change scenarios future climate tropical environments nitrogen management |
| 英文摘要 | Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 1 degrees, 2 degrees, and 3 degrees C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security. |
| 出处 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology |
| 卷 | 52 |
| 期 | 1 |
| 页 | 114-129 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1558-8424 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30376]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu Y. J.,Tao F. L.. Probabilistic Change of Wheat Productivity and Water Use in China for Global Mean Temperature Changes of 1 degrees, 2 degrees, and 3 degrees C. 2013. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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