Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Asseng S. ; Ewert F. ; Rosenzweig C. ; Jones J. W. ; Hatfield J. L. ; Ruane A. C. ; Boote K. J. ; Thorburn P. J. ; Rotter R. P. ; Cammarano D. ; Brisson N. ; Basso B. ; Martre P. ; Aggarwal P. K. ; Angulo C. ; Bertuzzi P. ; Biernath C. ; Challinor A. J. ; Doltra J. ; Gayler S. ; Goldberg R. ; Grant R. ; Heng L. ; Hooker J. ; Hunt L. A. ; Ingwersen J. ; Izaurralde R. C. ; Kersebaum K. C. ; Muller C. ; Kumar S. N. ; Nendel C. ; O'leary G. ; Olesen J. E. ; Osborne T. M. ; Palosuo T. ; Priesack E. ; Ripoche D. ; Semenov M. A. ; Shcherbak I. ; Steduto P. ; Stockle C. ; Stratonovitch P. ; Streck T. ; Supit I. ; Tao F. ; Travasso M. ; Waha K. ; Wallach D. ; White J. W. ; Williams J. R. ; Wolf J. |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 关键词 | crop production models food co2 temperature projections adaptation scenarios ensemble impacts |
| 英文摘要 | Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking. |
| 出处 | Nature Climate Change |
| 卷 | 3 |
| 期 | 9 |
| 页 | 827-832 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1758-678X |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30664]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Asseng S.,Ewert F.,Rosenzweig C.,et al. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. 2013. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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