Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Modeling: A BME-SIR Approach
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Angulo J. ; Yu H. L. ; Langousis A. ; Kolovos A. ; Wang J. F. ; Madrid A. E. ; Christakos G. |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 关键词 | bayesian-maximum-entropy spatial dynamics measles epidemics bubonic plague impact spread time transmission assimilation uncertainty |
| 英文摘要 | This paper is concerned with the modeling of infectious disease spread in a composite space-time domain under conditions of uncertainty. We focus on stochastic modeling that accounts for basic mechanisms of disease distribution and multi-sourced in situ uncertainties. Starting from the general formulation of population migration dynamics and the specification of transmission and recovery rates, the model studies the functional formulation of the evolution of the fractions of susceptible-infected-recovered individuals. The suggested approach is capable of: a) modeling population dynamics within and across localities, b) integrating the disease representation (i.e. susceptible-infected-recovered individuals) with observation time series at different geographical locations and other sources of information (e. g. hard and soft data, empirical relationships, secondary information), and c) generating predictions of disease spread and associated parameters in real time, while considering model and observation uncertainties. Key aspects of the proposed approach are illustrated by means of simulations (i.e. synthetic studies), and a real-world application using hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) data from China. |
| 出处 | Plos One |
| 卷 | 8 |
| 期 | 9 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1932-6203 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/30665]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Angulo J.,Yu H. L.,Langousis A.,et al. Spatiotemporal Infectious Disease Modeling: A BME-SIR Approach. 2013. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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