A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang Shao-jie1,2 ; Wei Fang-qiang2; Liu Dun-long2; Yang Hong-juan2; Jiang Yu-hong2
|
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2014-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:6页码:1531-1542 |
| 关键词 | Debris flow Forecasting Water-soil coupling mechanism Watershed |
| ISSN号 | 1672-6316 |
| 通讯作者 | WEI Fang-qiang |
| 英文摘要 | A debris flow forecast model based on a water-soil coupling mechanism that takes the debris-flow watershed as a basic forecast unit was established here for the prediction of disasters at the watershed scale. This was achieved through advances in our understanding of the formation mechanism of debris flow. To expand the applicable spatial scale of this forecasting model, a method of identifying potential debris flow watersheds was used to locate areas vulnerable to debris flow within a forecast region. Using these watersheds as forecasting units and a prediction method based on the water-soil coupling mechanism, a new forecasting method of debris flow at the regional scale was established. In order to test the prediction ability of this new forecasting method, the Sichuan province, China was selected as a study zone and the large-scale debris flow disasters attributable to heavy rainfall in this region on July 9, 2013 were taken as the study case. According to debris flow disaster data on July 9, 2013 which were provided by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province, there were 252 watersheds in which debris flow events actually occurred. The current model predicted that 265 watersheds were likely to experience a debris flow event. Among these, 43 towns including 204 debris-flow watersheds were successfully forecasted and 24 towns including 48 watersheds failed. The false prediction rate and failure prediction rate of this forecast model were 23% and 19%, respectively. The results show that this method is more accurate and more applicable than traditional methods. |
| WOS标题词 | Science & Technology ; Life Sciences & Biomedicine |
| 类目[WOS] | Environmental Sciences |
| 研究领域[WOS] | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 关键词[WOS] | RAINFALL ; LANDSLIDE ; CHINA ; MODEL ; ALPS |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000345621100015 |
| 公开日期 | 2014-11-18 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/7421]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_Journal of Mountain Science _Journal of Mountain Science-2014_Vol11 No.6 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang Shao-jie,Wei Fang-qiang,Liu Dun-long,et al. A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2014,11(6):1531-1542. |
| APA | Zhang Shao-jie,Wei Fang-qiang,Liu Dun-long,Yang Hong-juan,&Jiang Yu-hong.(2014).A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,11(6),1531-1542. |
| MLA | Zhang Shao-jie,et al."A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 11.6(2014):1531-1542. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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