Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Bahram CHOUBIN ; Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI ; Arash MALEKIAN ; Sajjad AHMAD ; Pedram ATTAROD |
| 刊名 | Journal of Mountain Science
 |
| 出版日期 | 2014-11 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:6页码:1593-1605 |
| 关键词 | Annual Rainfall Large-scale Climate Signals Neuro-Fuzzy Cross-Correlation Principal Components Analysis Drought |
| 通讯作者 | Sajjad AHMAD |
| 英文摘要 | Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed, located in Iran, using a neuro-fuzzy model. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as a proxy for drought conditions. Among the 45 climate indices considered, eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), the Bivariate ENSO Time series (BEST), the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature (NINO 3.4), the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature (NINO 4), the North Tropical Atlantic Index (NTA), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA). These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) method. The Atlantic surface temperature (SST: Atlantic) had an inverse relationship with SPI, and the AMM index had the highest correlation. Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model. |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 公开日期 | 2014-11-18 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/7427]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_Journal of Mountain Science _Journal of Mountain Science-2014_Vol11 No.6 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bahram CHOUBIN,Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI,Arash MALEKIAN,et al. Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach[J]. Journal of Mountain Science,2014,11(6):1593-1605. |
| APA | Bahram CHOUBIN,Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI,Arash MALEKIAN,Sajjad AHMAD,&Pedram ATTAROD.(2014).Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach.Journal of Mountain Science,11(6),1593-1605. |
| MLA | Bahram CHOUBIN,et al."Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals: a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach".Journal of Mountain Science 11.6(2014):1593-1605. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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