Influence of the initial shock speed excited by solar flares on shock arrival time prediction
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Luo Hao; Chen Geng-Xiong; Du Ai-Min; Sun Wei; Xu Wen-Yao; Zhang Ying; Zhao Xu-Dong; Wang Yuan |
| 刊名 | CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2011 |
| 卷号 | 54期号:6页码:856-863 |
| 关键词 | HAF model Initial shock speed Shock arrival time Type II radio burst |
| ISSN号 | 0001-5733 |
| 通讯作者 | Luo, H (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. |
| 中文摘要 | By using Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind model, we simulated 48 solar flare events during Carrington Rotation 1981 to 1985 and compared the simulated shock arrival time with observations by satellites at 1 AU. It is found that the initial solar wind shock speed deduced from the metric Type II radio burst observations plays an important role in the shock arrival time prediction. The match between predicted and observed shock arrival times (SATs) was considerably improved by iteratively adjusting the initial shock speed. We obtained the adjustment factors as a function of the initial shock speed for different hemispheres by statistical analysis and applied them to adjust the initial shock speed driven by the solar flares which occurred in the following five Carrington rotations (1986 similar to 1990), the mean absolute error of the shock arrival time was reduced from 16 (15) hours to 12 (11) hours for the flare occurred on the western (eastern) hemisphere. This indicates that there can be significant improvements for the shock arrival time prediction by adjusting the initial shock speed using the statistical functions. |
| 英文摘要 | By using Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind model, we simulated 48 solar flare events during Carrington Rotation 1981 to 1985 and compared the simulated shock arrival time with observations by satellites at 1 AU. It is found that the initial solar wind shock speed deduced from the metric Type II radio burst observations plays an important role in the shock arrival time prediction. The match between predicted and observed shock arrival times (SATs) was considerably improved by iteratively adjusting the initial shock speed. We obtained the adjustment factors as a function of the initial shock speed for different hemispheres by statistical analysis and applied them to adjust the initial shock speed driven by the solar flares which occurred in the following five Carrington rotations (1986 similar to 1990), the mean absolute error of the shock arrival time was reduced from 16 (15) hours to 12 (11) hours for the flare occurred on the western (eastern) hemisphere. This indicates that there can be significant improvements for the shock arrival time prediction by adjusting the initial shock speed using the statistical functions. |
| 学科主题 | 空间物理 |
| 收录类别 | SCI ; EI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 公开日期 | 2014-12-15 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/3200]  |
| 专题 | 国家空间科学中心_空间科学部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luo Hao,Chen Geng-Xiong,Du Ai-Min,et al. Influence of the initial shock speed excited by solar flares on shock arrival time prediction[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION,2011,54(6):856-863. |
| APA | Luo Hao.,Chen Geng-Xiong.,Du Ai-Min.,Sun Wei.,Xu Wen-Yao.,...&Wang Yuan.(2011).Influence of the initial shock speed excited by solar flares on shock arrival time prediction.CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION,54(6),856-863. |
| MLA | Luo Hao,et al."Influence of the initial shock speed excited by solar flares on shock arrival time prediction".CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION 54.6(2011):856-863. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家空间科学中心
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