Ensemble forecasting model for geomagnetic disturbance
文献类型：会议论文
| 作者 | Xie, YanQiong; Zhang, Jun; Han, XianHua |
| 出版日期 | 2011 |
| 会议名称 | 2011 International Conference on Electronics and Optoelectronics, ICEOE 2011 |
| 会议日期 | July 29, 2011 - July 31, 2011 |
| 会议地点 | Dalian, China |
| 页码 | V1335-V1338 |
| 通讯作者 | Xie, Y. (yqxie@spaceweather.ac.cn) |
| 中文摘要 | Ensemble forecasting has been shown to offer a systematic improvement in the skill of weather and climate prediction with different models. However, little such work has been done for space weather prediction. Referring to the ensemble forecasting technique in weather prediction, a novel geomagnetic disturbance ensemble forecasting (GDEF) model is developed in this paper. This model combines two Kp forecast models, geomagnetic disturbance forecast indicators model and geomagnetic disturbance empirical energy model, with the physics-based parameter of mean solar wind speed. Applying the GDEF model to 132 events, the prediction results show that the absolute error of GDEF model is 11.55, which is obviously smaller than 12.17 and 13.85 from the two single models, respectively. Moreover, the relative error of our model is &le10% for 28.03% of all events, &le30% for 75.76%, and &le50% for 90.15%, which is better than those of the individual models. These results demonstrate that the GDEF model can utilize the advantages of each single model and improve the accuracy of prediction. Thus, developing ensemble forecasting technique is an effective way of improving space weather prediction. © 2011 IEEE. |
| 英文摘要 | Ensemble forecasting has been shown to offer a systematic improvement in the skill of weather and climate prediction with different models. However, little such work has been done for space weather prediction. Referring to the ensemble forecasting technique in weather prediction, a novel geomagnetic disturbance ensemble forecasting (GDEF) model is developed in this paper. This model combines two Kp forecast models, geomagnetic disturbance forecast indicators model and geomagnetic disturbance empirical energy model, with the physics-based parameter of mean solar wind speed. Applying the GDEF model to 132 events, the prediction results show that the absolute error of GDEF model is 11.55, which is obviously smaller than 12.17 and 13.85 from the two single models, respectively. Moreover, the relative error of our model is &le10% for 28.03% of all events, &le30% for 75.76%, and &le50% for 90.15%, which is better than those of the individual models. These results demonstrate that the GDEF model can utilize the advantages of each single model and improve the accuracy of prediction. Thus, developing ensemble forecasting technique is an effective way of improving space weather prediction. © 2011 IEEE. |
| 收录类别 | EI |
| 会议录 | ICEOE 2011 - 2011 International Conference on Electronics and Optoelectronics, Proceedings
 |
| 会议录出版者 | IEEE Computer Society, 445 Hoes Lane - P.O.Box 1331, Piscataway, NJ 08855-1331, United States |
| 学科主题 | 空间物理 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISBN号 | 9781612842738 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/3033]  |
| 专题 | 国家空间科学中心_空间科学部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xie, YanQiong,Zhang, Jun,Han, XianHua. Ensemble forecasting model for geomagnetic disturbance[C]. 见:2011 International Conference on Electronics and Optoelectronics, ICEOE 2011. Dalian, China. July 29, 2011 - July 31, 2011. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：国家空间科学中心
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