Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin, China
文献类型：EI期刊论文
| 作者 | Xia Jun |
| 发表日期 | 2014 |
| 关键词 | Precipitation (meteorology) Climate change Greenhouse gases Time series analysis Watersheds |
| 英文摘要 | The magnitude and frequency of regional extreme precipitation events may have variability under climate change. This study investigates the time-space variability and statistical probability characteristics of extreme precipitation under climate change in the Haihe River Basin. Hydrological alteration diagnosis methods are implemented to detect the occurrence time, style and degree of alteration such as trend and jump in the extreme precipitation series, and stationarity and serial independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. Then, the historical extreme precipitation frequency and spatio-temporal variations analyses are conducted via generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation events in future is analysed on the basis of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change multi-mode climate models under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRES-A2, A1B and B1). Results indicate that (1) in the past, alteration of extreme precipitation mainly occurred in the area north of 38N. Decreasing trends of extreme precipitation are detected at most stations, whereas jump alteration is not obvious at most stations. (2) Spatial variation of estimated extreme precipitation under different return periods shows similarity. Bounded by the Taihang Mountain-Yan Mountain, extreme rainfall in the Haihe River Basin gradually reduces from the southeast to the northwest, which is consistent with the geographical features of the Haihe River Basin. (3) In the future, extreme precipitation with return period 5-20years accounts for a significant portion of the total occurrence times. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has an increase trend under A1B and A2 scenarios. The total occurrence times of extreme precipitation under A1B senario are not more than that under B1 senario until the 2030s. 2012 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. |
| 出处 | Hydrological Processes
 |
| 卷 | 28期:3页:913-925 |
| 收录类别 | EI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/31243]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xia Jun. Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin, China. 2014. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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