Probabilistic change of wheat productivity and water use in china for global mean temperature changes of 1, 2, and 3c
文献类型：EI期刊论文
| 作者 | Tao Fulu; Liu Yujie |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 关键词 | Carbon dioxide Atmospheric composition Cultivation Digital storage Food supply Global warming Uncertainty analysis Water supply |
| 英文摘要 | Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 18, 28, and 38C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security. 2013 American Meteorological Society. |
| 出处 | Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
 |
| 卷 | 52期:1页:114-129 |
| 收录类别 | EI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/31314]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tao Fulu,Liu Yujie. Probabilistic change of wheat productivity and water use in china for global mean temperature changes of 1, 2, and 3c. 2013. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。