Assessing the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in China
文献类型：EI期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu Xiaomang |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Arid regions Atmospheric temperature Differential equations Evapotranspiration Solar radiation Sun Water supply Wind effects |
| 英文摘要 | Reference evapotranspiration (ET 0) is a key parameter in hydrological and meteorological studies. In this study, the FAO Penman-Monteith equation was used to estimate ET 0, and the change in ET 0 was investigated in China from 1960 to 2011. The results show that a change point around the year 1993 was detected for the annual ET 0 series by the Cramer's test. For the national average, annual ET 0 decreased significantly (P < 0.001) by -14.35 mm/decade from 1960 to 1992, while ET 0 increased significantly (P < 0.05) by 22.40 mm/decade from 1993 to 2011. A differential equation method was used to attribute the change in ET 0 to climate variables. The attribution results indicate that ET 0 was most sensitive to change in vapor pressure, followed by solar radiation, air temperature and wind speed. However, the effective impact of change in climate variable on ET 0 was the product of the sensitivity and the change rate of climate variable. During 1960-1992, the decrease in solar radiation was the main reason of the decrease in ET 0 in humid region, while decrease in wind speed was the dominant factor of decreases in ET 0 in arid region and semi-arid/semi-humid region of China. Decrease in solar radiation and/or wind speed offset the effect of increasing air temperature on ET 0, and together led to the decrease in ET 0 from 1960 to 1992. Since 1993, the rapidly increasing air temperature was the dominant factor to the change in ET 0 in all the three regions of China, which led to the increase in ET 0. Furthermore, the future change in ET 0 was calculated under IPCC SRES A1B and B1 scenarios with projections from three GCMs. The results showed that increasing air temperature would dominate the change in ET 0 and ET 0 would increase by 2.13-10.77, 4.42-16.21 and 8.67-21.27 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s compared with the average annual ET 0 during 1960-1990, respectively. The increases in ET 0 would lead to the increase in agriculture water consumption in the 21st century and may aggravate the water shortage in China. 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
| 出处 | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
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| 卷 | 27期:8页:1871-1881 |
| 收录类别 | EI |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/31434]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu Xiaomang. Assessing the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in China. 2013. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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