通过被引频次来判断论文影响力已经得到广泛应用,如何快速而准确地挖掘到有价值的文章,是文献计量 学领域的重要探索。 对国内外科学论文被引频次的影响因素和预测方法进行了系统归纳,首先从传统文献计量学、 新兴网络计量学两方面,将影响论文引用的相关因素按作者因素、文章因素、期刊因素、网络计量学、其他因素这五 个维度进行梳理,然后总结了常用的引用预测方法,并重点探讨了回归分析法,最后对影响论文引用因素的选择、数 据来源及指标问题进行讨论,并提出相关建议。 

Citation-count is widely used in assessing the impact of papers and how to mine the valuable papers quickly and accurately is an urgent exploration in bibliometrics. This paper is aimed to summarize systematically the indicators and prediction methods for scientific pa鄄 pers citation impact. According to the traditional bibliometrics and emerging webmetrics, all the factors are classified into paper factors, author factors, journal factors, webmetrics and other factors. Then the methods on predicting citation-count are discussed, focusing on re鄄 gression analysis. Finally, advices about selection of indictors and data sources are presented.