[目的/意义]对科研产出高峰期研究现状进行剖析,分析存在的问题,提出可改进方向及研究重点.[方法/过程]总结现有科研创造峰值和科研创造峰值年龄概念,进一步提出科研产出高峰期的概念;对几种研究模型,如威布尔分布模型、对数正态分布模型、两步认知模型等进行剖析,总结优缺点.[结果/结论]当前研究模型在数据统计及处理误差和科研产出衡量指标的选取方面存在严重不足.未来研究思路和方向是科研产出衡量指标构建、数据处理误差克服、产出影响因素作用机理研究.

[Purpose/significance] By analyzing the peak age of scientific research output, the paper analyzes the existing problems, and puts forward the improvement direction and research points.[Method/process] After summarizing the existing concept of research creation peak and scientific creation peak age and analyzing Weibull Distribution,LogarithmicNormal Distribution Model, Two-Step Cognitive Model,Econometric Models, the paper studies the advantages and disadvantages.[Result/conclusion] The existing research models have drawbacks on data statistics and processing error and the selection of research output measures. The future research direction and points includes constructing the index for scientific research output, overcoming the data statistics and processing error, and discussing the influence mechanism of scientific research output.