Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events?
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Shu1,2 ; Li, Jin-Zhen1,2; Chen, Yi-Wen1,2; Bai, Xin-Wen1,2; Ren, Xiao-Peng1,2; Zheng, Rui1,2; Rao, Li-Lin1,2; Wang, Zuo-Jun1,2; Liu, Huan1,2
|
| 刊名 | RISK ANALYSIS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2010-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 30期号:4页码:699-707 |
| 通讯作者邮箱 | lishu@psych.ac.cn |
| 关键词 | Disaster optimistic bias overconfidence rationality time-decay |
| ISSN号 | 0272-4332 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 通讯作者 | Shu Li |
| 合作状况 | 国内 |
| 英文摘要 | During the first half of 2008, China suffered three natural disasters: a heavy snow storm, an outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease, and a severe earthquake. The aim of the present study is to explore how low-probability/high-consequence events influence overconfidence. In Study 1, opportunity samples were obtained by recruiting residents in three different types of disaster-hit areas to answer a peer-comparison probability judgment questionnaire about 1 month after the corresponding disaster occurred. The performance of 539 participants in disaster-hit areas was compared with that of 142 residents in a nondisaster area. The findings indicate that residents in disaster-hit areas were less overconfident than those in the nondisaster area on both positive and negative events. In Study 2, we surveyed a total of 336 quake-victims 4 and 11 months after the earthquake to examine whether the impact of disasters on overconfidence would decay with time. The resulting data indicate that the disaster victims became more overconfident as time elapsed. The overall findings suggest that low-probability/high-consequence events could make people less overconfident and more rational and seem to serve as a function of debiasing. |
| 学科主题 | 环境心理学 |
| 收录类别 | SCI ; SSCI |
| 原文出处 | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20199651 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000276618700014 |
| 公开日期 | 2014-06-10 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.psych.ac.cn/handle/311026/10064]  |
| 专题 | 心理研究所_中国科学院心理研究所回溯数据库(1956-2010) |
| 作者单位 | 1.Institute of Psychol, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Psychol, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Shu,Li, Jin-Zhen,Chen, Yi-Wen,et al. Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events?[J]. RISK ANALYSIS,2010,30(4):699-707. |
| APA | Li, Shu.,Li, Jin-Zhen.,Chen, Yi-Wen.,Bai, Xin-Wen.,Ren, Xiao-Peng.,...&Liu, Huan.(2010).Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events?.RISK ANALYSIS,30(4),699-707. |
| MLA | Li, Shu,et al."Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events?".RISK ANALYSIS 30.4(2010):699-707. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：心理研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。