Ecological footprint simulation and prediction by ARIMA model-A case study in Henan Province of China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Jia, Jun-song; Zhao, Jing-zhu; Deng, Hong-bing; Duan, Jing |
| 刊名 | ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2010-03 |
| 卷号 | 10期号:2页码:538-544 |
| 关键词 | ARIMA model Ecological footprint Henan Province Simulation Prediction |
| 中文摘要 | Ecological footprint (EF), as one of the sustainable development indicators, has received considerable attention. However, it has mostly been used as a static indicator. The accurate quantitative analysis on its development trend is still rare. Thus, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was introduced to enhance the forecasting capacity of EF indicator. Taking Henan Province of China as a study area, we firstly computed the EF and the ecological carrying capacity (EC) in 1949-2006. Based on the Computed results, the simulating process of the ARIMA model and the fitting and forecasting results were explained in detail. The final results demonstrated that ARIMA model could be used effectively in the simulation and prediction of EF and the predicted EF could help the decision-makers make a package of better planning for regional ecological balance or sustainable future. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000272431700048 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.rcees.ac.cn/handle/311016/20963]  |
| 专题 | 生态环境研究中心_城市与区域生态国家重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jia, Jun-song,Zhao, Jing-zhu,Deng, Hong-bing,et al. Ecological footprint simulation and prediction by ARIMA model-A case study in Henan Province of China[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2010,10(2):538-544. |
| APA | Jia, Jun-song,Zhao, Jing-zhu,Deng, Hong-bing,&Duan, Jing.(2010).Ecological footprint simulation and prediction by ARIMA model-A case study in Henan Province of China.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,10(2),538-544. |
| MLA | Jia, Jun-song,et al."Ecological footprint simulation and prediction by ARIMA model-A case study in Henan Province of China".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 10.2(2010):538-544. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：生态环境研究中心
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