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Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Asseng S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rotter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W. |
| 发表日期 | 2015 |
| 关键词 | climate-change spring wheat dryland wheat yield growth drought heat co2 agriculture adaptation |
| 英文摘要 | Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time. |
| 出处 | Nature Climate Change |
| 卷 | 5 |
| 期 | 2 |
| 页 | 143-147 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1758-678X |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/38545]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Asseng S.,Ewert, F.,Martre, P.,et al. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. 2015. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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