Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, David D.; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F.; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane |
| 刊名 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
 |
| 出版日期 | 2007-12-04 |
| 卷号 | 104期号:49页码:19214-19219 |
| 关键词 | agricultural production population collapse price war-peace cycles preindustrial era |
| ISSN号 | 0027-8424 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.0703073104 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, David D.(zhangd@hkucc.hku.hk) |
| 英文摘要 | Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism. |
| 收录类别 | SCI ; SSCI |
| WOS关键词 | LAST MILLENNIUM ; FREQUENCY ; CHINA |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000251525800012 |
| 出版者 | NATL ACAD SCIENCES |
| URI标识 | http://www.irgrid.ac.cn/handle/1471x/2555897 |
| 专题 | 寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, David D. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 2.Georgia Inst Technol, Sam Nunn Sch Int Affairs, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China 4.UCL, Dept Anthropol, London WC1E 6BT, England |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, David D.,Brecke, Peter,Lee, Harry F.,et al. Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2007,104(49):19214-19219. |
| APA | Zhang, David D.,Brecke, Peter,Lee, Harry F.,He, Yuan-Qing,&Zhang, Jane.(2007).Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,104(49),19214-19219. |
| MLA | Zhang, David D.,et al."Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 104.49(2007):19214-19219. |
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来源：寒区旱区环境与工程研究所
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