Identifying key convection-sensitive oceanic regions to weaken the ENSO spring predictability barrier
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Mei, Zepeng9; Lin, Shuheng9; Fang, Keyan9; Tang, Wanru9; Zhou, Feifei9; Liu, Fei7,8; Zhao, Sen6; Wu, Hao5,9; Li, Jinbao4,9; Zhao, Zheng9 |
| 刊名 | PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-03-24 |
| 卷号 | 123期号:12页码:9 |
| 关键词 | El Ni & ntilde spring predictability barrier convection | Bjerknes feedback o-southern oscillation |
| ISSN号 | 0027-8424 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.2512725123 |
| 通讯作者 | Fang, Keyan(kfang@fjnu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits its weakest predictability during boreal spring, a phenomenon known as the Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB). The SPB arises from weak air-sea coupling that limits the growth and persistence of the ENSO signal. Improving springtime prediction therefore requires identifying oceanic regions most relevant for convection variability. Here, we introduce a Sea Surface Temperature Range Index (SRI), which quantifies the spatial extent of Sea surface temperatures favorable for convection. Using SRI, we show that regions exceeding 26 degrees C in the east-central Pacific and 28.5 degrees C in the eastern Atlantic during spring are critical for initiating persistent intense convection. The expansion of these convection-sensitive areas strengthens the Bjerknes feedback by modulating the Walker circulation, providing an effective predictor of ENSO evolution. We further develop a Long Short-Term Memory deep learning model incorporating SRI, which achieves higher predictive skill than the average of dynamical and statistical models, especially for multiyear La Ni & ntilde;a events. These results underscore the central role of convection-sensitive oceanic regions in alleviating the SPB. |
| WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; LA-NINA EVENTS ; EL-NINO ; ATLANTIC ; PACIFIC ; PREDICTION ; MONSOON ; MODEL ; WIND ; OSCILLATION |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[42425101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42505021] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42301058] ; Tsinghua University[100008001] ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[GZC20250218] ; Fujian Institute for Cross-Straits Integrated Development[LARH24JBO7] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001729114000001 |
| 出版者 | NATL ACAD SCIENCES |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Tsinghua University ; Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; Fujian Institute for Cross-Straits Integrated Development |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/17830]  |
| 专题 | 地球环境研究所_古环境研究室 |
| 通讯作者 | Fang, Keyan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian 710061, Peoples R China 3.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden 4.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog, Hong Kong 999077, Peoples R China 5.East China Univ Technol, Sch Water Resources & Environm Engn, State Key Lab Nucl Resources & Environm, Nanchang 330013, Jiangxi, Peoples R China 6.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA 7.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China 8.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Key Lab Trop Atmosphere Ocean Syst, Minist Educ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China 9.Fujian Normal Univ, Inst Cross Straits Integrated Dev, Key Lab Humid Subtrop Ecogeog Proc, Minist Educ,Sch Geograph Sci, Fuzhou 350007, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mei, Zepeng,Lin, Shuheng,Fang, Keyan,et al. Identifying key convection-sensitive oceanic regions to weaken the ENSO spring predictability barrier[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2026,123(12):9. |
| APA | Mei, Zepeng.,Lin, Shuheng.,Fang, Keyan.,Tang, Wanru.,Zhou, Feifei.,...&Nobre, Carlos.(2026).Identifying key convection-sensitive oceanic regions to weaken the ENSO spring predictability barrier.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,123(12),9. |
| MLA | Mei, Zepeng,et al."Identifying key convection-sensitive oceanic regions to weaken the ENSO spring predictability barrier".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 123.12(2026):9. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地球环境研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。