Evaluating the impact of extreme climate events on crop yields under future climate scenarios
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Huihui6,7; Su, Jingyong7; Loaiciga, Hugo A.5; Liu, Ji4; Hu, Yao2,3; Wu, Xueman2; Ying, Zhengtao1; Sauter, Tobias6 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2026-04-08 |
| 卷号 | 554页码:16 |
| 关键词 | Extreme climate events Explainable prediction models Critical threshold Climate change scenarios Crop yields |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2026.148099 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Huihui(zhanhuih@hu-berlin.de) |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change and associated extreme climate events, such as drought, heavy precipitation, and heatwaves, present challenges to crop yields and global food security. However, the critical thresholds of associated dominant extreme events remain unclear, and so does the manner in which these events may influence future agricultural risks. This work develops a novel, data-driven, framework for assessing climate-induced crop yield risks and for evaluating the role of extreme climate events on the yields of major crops. The evaluation is made using an explainable LightGBM prediction model based on historical yield and climate data. The model elucidates key climate events driving yield variability and identifies their critical thresholds at which they negatively impact crop yield. Non-climatic factors are controlled to isolate climate-driven yield variability. This paper's framework is applied to evaluate the role that extreme climatic events might have on crop yields at the district (Landkreis) level in Germany relying on data from 2001 to 2020 across the growing season. This study projects future spatiotemporal exposure risks to crop yields induced by extreme climate events and their critical thresholds under two carbon emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from 2025 to 2100 in the study region. Our results indicate that meteorological drought and extreme high temperature are the dominant climate stressors threatening spring-sown or summer crop yields, while grain maize, oats, and summer barley are particular sensitive to short-term, intense drought events. In contrast, sugar beet is principally affected by longterm water deficits, as indicated by average meteorological drought conditions, and relies on consistent water availability throughout the growing season. Spatiotemporal exposure analysis reveals crop-specific vulnerability patterns: for instance, potato yields face exposure probabilities of up to 90%, whereas sugar beet shows the lowest risk, albeit with a twofold increase under higher emissions. This work's findings provide actionable insights for precision yield estimation, early warning systems, and adaptation strategies to mitigate climate impacts on food security. |
| WOS关键词 | DROUGHT TOLERANCE ; STRESS ; AGRICULTURE ; RESPONSES ; GERMANY ; HEAT |
| 资助项目 | Einstein Research Unit Climate and Water under Change from the Einstein Foundation Berlin and Berlin University Alliance[ERU-2020-609] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001734592300001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 资助机构 | Einstein Research Unit Climate and Water under Change from the Einstein Foundation Berlin and Berlin University Alliance |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ieecas.cn/handle/361006/17843]  |
| 专题 | 地球环境研究所_黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室（2010~） |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Huihui |
| 作者单位 | 1.Leibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries, Dept Ecohydrol, D-12587 Berlin, Germany 2.Shenzhen Marine Dev & Promot Ctr, Shenzhen 518034, Peoples R China 3.Shenzhen Univ, Coll Phys & Optoelect Engn, Coll Chem & Environm Engn, Shenzhen 518060, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian 710061, Peoples R China 5.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA 6.Humboldt Univ, Geog Dept, D-12489 Berlin, Germany 7.Harbin Inst Technol Shenzhen, Sch Comp Sci & Technol, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Huihui,Su, Jingyong,Loaiciga, Hugo A.,et al. Evaluating the impact of extreme climate events on crop yields under future climate scenarios[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2026,554:16. |
| APA | Zhang, Huihui.,Su, Jingyong.,Loaiciga, Hugo A..,Liu, Ji.,Hu, Yao.,...&Sauter, Tobias.(2026).Evaluating the impact of extreme climate events on crop yields under future climate scenarios.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,554,16. |
| MLA | Zhang, Huihui,et al."Evaluating the impact of extreme climate events on crop yields under future climate scenarios".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 554(2026):16. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地球环境研究所
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