基于混沌理论的滑坡时间预报研究——以二滩库区某大型滑坡为例
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | 吴敏 |
| 学位类别 | 硕士 |
| 答辩日期 | 2008 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 成都 |
| 导师 | 陈永波 |
| 关键词 | 滑坡 混沌理论 相空间重构 滑坡预报 |
| 学位专业 | 自然地理学 |
| 中文摘要 | 中国是一个受滑坡灾害影响较严重的国家之一，每年滑坡造成的经济损失高达100亿美元以上。在我国还没有足够的经济和技术实力对所有的潜在危险性滑坡进行治理的情况下，只能采取各种方法对滑坡进行预报，以减少灾害损失。本文开展混沌理论在滑坡预报中的研究，对二滩库区某大型滑坡的观测数据进行混沌时间序列分析,提出加权动态局域预测模型，并通过滑坡的地质分析和Flac_2D数值分析，共同对该滑坡位移序列进行预测，具体研究内容如下：(1)采取G_P积分法算出观测数据位移序列具有饱和关联维数，判定该序列为混沌序列(2)文中采用自相关法和G_P积分法分别算出嵌入延迟和嵌入维数，从而重构系统的相空间，重点讨论了混沌时间序列的特征参量---最大Lyapunov指数，并采用Rosenstein小数据量法计算出序列的最大Lyapunov指数(3)基于滑坡位移序列的混沌特性，综合考虑广义自由度和临近点权重的基础上提出了加权动态局域预测模型，该模型的每一步预测都会给出一个合理的邻域，提高了预测精度。(4)运用加权动态局域预测模型对该滑坡2007年1月-2008年12月24个月位移进行预测，结合前面对该滑坡的地质分析和FLAC-2D数值模拟共同得出结论：在未来的两年滑坡处于缓慢的蠕滑阶段，在没有大的地质变动情况下不会发生大规模的滑动。 文章通过对二滩库区某大型滑坡实际位移序列进行预测，研究了其混沌特性，取得了令人满意的结果，这对建立滑坡实时监测和预警系统具有重要的意义。 |
| 英文摘要 | China is a country where the disaster loss is very serious; the economic loss caused by landslide is high to 100 billion dollars every year. When it is impossible in our country to have enough economic and technical force to comprehensively control about latent risky landslide disaster spot, we can but find methods of predicting the landslide disaster and improving the precision to reduce the disaster loss. Chaos Theory’s application in Landslide Prediction is studied in this paper, Analyze using Chaotic Time Series on the observation data of landslide displacement of ErTan reservoir area; predict the landslide displacement with the weight-dynamic local prediction model, with the geological analysis and Numerical simulation with FLAC-2D on the landslide, it prove the veracity of the prediction with Chaotic Time Series. The major contents and research results are as follows:(1) By G_P saturation correlation dimension method, the observation data of landslide displacement of ErTan reservoir area was considered a chaotic series. (2) In this paper, construct dimension was estimated by G_P saturation correlation dimension method; Time delay was chosen by using autocorrelation function method. Emphasis is given on the chaotic characteristics, for example maximal Lyapunov exponent, it was calculated by Rosenstein method.(3) In terms of chaotic characteristics of landslide displacement, the weight-dynamic local prediction model was introduced; the model considers the neighbor’s weight and the generalized degrees of freedom and can determine the reasonable neighborhood in the each step prediction.(4) The weight-dynamic local prediction model was applied in the landslide displacement from Jan.2007 to Dec.2008, combined to the geological analysis and Numerical simulation with FLAC-2D on the landslide above, the results show that the landslide will creep slowly in the follow tow years, when no serious geological changes occur.Through the landslide displacement forecasting of ErTan reservoir area, the results are satisfied, and it is much meaning to forecast the real-time landslide displacement. |
| 学科主题 | 灾害学 |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 公开日期 | 2010-10-15 |
| 分类号 | U67;TV2 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/2224]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 吴敏. 基于混沌理论的滑坡时间预报研究——以二滩库区某大型滑坡为例[D]. 成都. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所. 2008. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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